History in some respects is very simple. The Civil War was not fought because the South seceded. It was fought because Lincoln reacted with military force, and an invasion of the seceding States. This decision was made on April 15th, 1861–or in any event announced–making it one more addition to the already awful history of this date (which, karmically, also includes Lincolns death, four years later). [One wonders, should it not be 4/16, not 4/20?]
That Lincoln started the war proper is obvious. Yes, South Carolina did fire on and storm Fort Sumpter, but mainly as a means of arming themselves for what they rightly perceived was going to be a full scale invasion. That is how I remember the history, in any event.
One can argue about why they South seceded–in addition, obviously, to their never refuted claim that they had the right to do so in the face of what they perceived to be a tyrannical Federal government–and one can argue about the wisdom of Lincoln’s decision to end the lives of some 650,000 Americans, with a multiple that in casualties which radically altered lives, but one cannot dispute that if Lincoln had not responded as he did, that there would not have been a Civil War. The South had no intention of invading the North. They only did so after several years of war as a means of trying to get the North to cease its incursions.
Had Jackson, in other words, been in Lincoln’s position, there would have been no war. Period.
And that it was possible to foresee the Civil War is obvious. It was predicted when the Constitution was passed, and was only narrowly avoided several times in the decades leading up to the final split. Jackson himself was categorically in the States Rights camp (as was Jefferson).