Moderates United

If we use my analogy of a sluice gate, and the flow of water, as the twin mechanisms of quarantine and the spread of infection respectively, then it become obvious that a closed sluice is no good.  We need a certain amount of water through to get to the other side.  We need a percentage of the population–the number I see is 60%–to have had the disease and developed immunity to it.

With this disease, many people will get it and develop immunity to it without ever even knowing they have had it.  From one standpoint–that of their own experience–this is ideal.  Yes, of course it makes them more infectious, but once a disease is on the march, the march must be completed.  Farr’s Law must be satisfied.  The Bell Curve needs to appear.

A vaccine will need to wait for the next appearance, and I suspect as with flus (there are, what, dozens if not hundreds of variants?), whatever iteration this thing presents will probably be slightly different than the one it is presenting today, diluting the effect of the vaccine.

There will clearly need to be a learning curve here with governments too, those with genuinely humanitarian intention, which is clearly not all of them, as to what policies best balance the physical health of their populations with their economic health.

We need to get smarter across the board in how we deal with these sorts of disruptions.  Rule one, I would submit, is that human life is frail and finite and that we all die.  It is reasonable and sane to do what we can to protect life, and to make it as healthy and comfortable as possible, but it is not, and never will be, worth the resources of a nation to save one life, or even a hundred.

Everything hangs in a variety of balances, and wisdom consists in finding the one which is best for all, and across all time domains.

It is a regrettable fact that the OBVIOUS  economic idea is generally forgotten or ignored, that all policies of any sort can have varying effects on differing people, and can have one effect in the short term, and another entirely over the long term.

The obvious example is so-called Keynesian economics, whereby governments use their powers to print and borrow money to create short term and local illusions of prosperity.  The money flows in, it is spent, and for a short time, things appear good.  Then it ends.  No matter how much money you spend, no matter how many people you give it to, it always ends.

And then things are worse, since natural market forces have been distorted by helicopter money.  I have often compared this to the effect of drinking salt water for thirst.

Something like 2 million Americans die every year.  A choice has to be made between them dying of some virus, and them dying of a heart attack waiting for a welfare check at the unemployment office.  There are no risk free options.

It echoed comments I heard from some BBC hack years ago talking about how in Cuba, when they give an evacuation order IT IS OBEYED, unlike in the decadent free world.  No, you fuck up there, you get whipped.  You almost got the sense that the commentator had some sort of spanking fetish, with Fidel Castro in a starring role.

I literally think Gavin Newsom–who, like all the contemporary crop of Democrats, is a fascist in temperament but not yet, quite, in power–wanted to copy and emulate the Communist Chinese.  He wants their system here.  He is not arresting anyone for dissent yet.  He is not actively censoring people, yet.  But the desire is unmistakably there, in my view.

And recall as well that this whole mess was created by the fact that that same Chinese Communist government DIDN’T WANT TO HEAR IT when a heroic doctor–he knew his life and freedom were on the line, in that den of fascist killers and sadists–started warning people that some serious shit was coming down the pike, and to take precautions and start sharing information so they could fight it together.  Yeah, that guy got locked up.  Then, if I recall the story, he was released, too late to do anything, and then he died of the coronavirus.

The impulse to use force is ever present in human nature.  But the OVERWHELMING majority of the time, it leads quickly to stupidity, ineffectiveness, and a worse situation overall for the group as a whole.  When you put a couple of “winners” out front–you know, like members of the Chinese Communist Party–you inevitably place everyone else in the category of loser.  Rather than raising the average level–which is more or less the American way–you raise a few at the expense of the many.  “Revolutions” then consist merely in replacing who is actually in charge.  The Chinese Revolution, so called, was of that sort.  You replaced one set of SOB’s with another, with the main difference in the degree of sophistry by means of which the latter rationalized their sadism and mass murder.

Returning to this country, though, we need to be very careful that our governments do not get the wrong ideas from all this.  As a nation, we are largely law abiding, and that makes things work.  Most people do their jobs, follow common sense laws, and this harmony helps all of us.  But compliance and conformity, as among others the German Nazis clearly showed, can be harnessed in the service of evil.

There may well come a time when some government or other in this country tries to enforce something like this, and shots get fired.  It’s not inconceivable that could happen this time, although I think that is a terrible idea and would oppose it strongly.  Let this play out, then let the Democrats pay, as I think they will, at the ballot box.

But there may come a time when that sort of thing is needed.  That is why we have guns.  That is why the people who used guns to earn us freedom from despotism made sure we would always have guns.  It is one of the most obvious gifts of the Constitution.

And this whole thing, like both of Obama’s terms, and Democrat calls to ban “assault rifles” (versus the other kind, whatever that might be), will act to put yet more guns into circulation, in addition to the something like one billion currently floating around America.  Our citizens own something like 25% of the total private firearms in the world.  I would take some pride in that statistic.

I remember hearing about the BILLIONS of money that would be lost, when all these government employees would not get paid, and would not contribute their share to the local economy.  And how were they going to SURVIVE, these poor people, many of whom made less than $100,000 a year, some of them even AFTER benefits?  The horror.  The horror.

Well, look at what our State governments are doing.  Look at California in particular.  If “shelter in place” (as you would do following a nuclear detonation in the fallout period) means what I think it does, not even the pizza delivery people are working.

Now, this affects the Information Workers, broadly speaking, much less than the service industry.  Most InfoWo’s (not a great shortening, but I like it for that reason, InWo’s would work too) of them do whatever they do on a computer, and in principle they could do it from a beach in Bora Bora, if the internet were reliable and fast enough.

But if you get tips, if you manage people who get tips, if you handle customer service, then you are well and truly fucked.  You may or may not get a check eventually, paid for with borrowed money which itself will create problems at some point, but you are fucked right now.

And it would, I think, be productive and useful to compare the hysteria over a one week government shut down, with the hysteria which is leading to the cessation of all public activity in spaces the size of California.

Both are driven by cynical, abusive, amoral, and frankly disgusting media outlets, pushing a political agenda which has nothing at all to do with the well being of ordinary Americans, which is not REALLY seeking to rectify any wrongs, fix any problems, or palliate and soothe any tears.  They don’t give a flying fuck about the “people”.  We are dogs to them.  Ignorant morons.  Rabble.  Something to be used, like a whore or condom, then cast aside practically, if not rhetorically.  Rhetorically, the story stays the same, and has across decades of failure and abuse.

Shutting down the government appeals to many of us.  I argued for it at the time, I think, although I can’t claim fully recollection.

But shutting down the world outside of home computers: that is ridiculous.

I’ve been posting this elsewhere, and thought I had posted it here, but apparently not.

I thought about the comment Brad Pitt, as Ben Rickert, made in “The Big Short”, that every 1% increase in unemployment leads to another 40,000 deaths.  I looked it up, and this actually seems to be in the range of the numbers most economists think most plausible, something between 30-40,000 deaths.  Most of them from heart attacks brought on by unbearable misery and stress, some strokes from the same cause, some suicides, some homicides, and some drug and alcohol overdoses.

Here is a BBC bit where they discuss these numbers: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/p03kpvk2?fbclid=IwAR3Rp_qIS7rew55ULcvF4yxvr5-5gZtjUfCwtvoFWFxGe8RPha5YCH2cTWo

Unemployment, according to substantially ALL studies, has terrible effects psychologically.  It damages self esteem, breeds depression and substance abuse, and acts as a corrosive on families and communities.

So why are we doing this fucking experiment, in the face of something which only killed 10,000 people (maybe: I’m roughly doubling the official number) in China, a country of 1.5 BILLION?  Normal demographic prediction would say they will lose 250,000 dead to the flu this year.  If you figure 80% of the death happens between Dec. 1st and March 30th–which is a SWAG, but probably not too far off, since on all accounts flu is mainly a winter disease–then over those four months about 60,000 people are dying a month, or 15,000 a WEEK, or about 2,000 a DAY.

If you don’t think we are being played–by whom, how, and to what extent it is impossible of course to say–you are a fucking idiot.

But it has been obvious for some time that key power elites want Trump OUT, by any means necessary.  If they didn’t invent or start the virus, they damn well intend to USE it to crash our economy.  Self evidently, if it has a financial effect on them, it will mainly be to create opportunities.  They would have been early sellers of stocks.

For that reason I have argued that this media blitz in favor of hysterical and extraordinarily unprecedented and completely unnecessary measures, should be seen as an extension of the same mindset, and the same methods, which were used to impeach Trump on the basis of a telephone call he released the transcript to, and with regard to a crime the presumptive Democrat nominee CLEARLY committed.

For anyone with half a brain, all you need to do is look at how many powerful and well placed people hate Trump, to understand that 1) he is not one of them; and 2) he represents an existential threat to them.  This doesn’t tell you, exactly, who they are, but it does clearly tell you THAT they are, that they exist, that this guy is the one in a million shot we were blessed with to halt the descent of our nation into soft authoritarianism.

“1. To those who support cities shutting down businesses or even ordering residents to shelter in place, as San Francisco has done, do you acknowledge just how much pain this will create in many people’s lives? At what point of economic pain would you say we are going too far? You agree there is a point at which the government is going too far to save one life, or even a thousand lives.

After all, you don’t think all speed limits should be 10 MPH, except for emergency vehicles.

Where is that point for you in this situation? How bad will the economy – and thus people’s lives – have to get?

2. As I understand it, the worst-case scenario, at least in the West, is something like what Italy is experiencing: too many elderly people getting the virus in a compact period of time, stretching the medical system past its breaking point. In the U.S., then, why isn’t the top priority to specifically protect older Americans? Why isn’t the loudest message from government officials for seniors to self-quarantine, as it appears to be in the United Kingdom? Wouldn’t a measure like this better address the “bend the curve” challenge than telling the entire population to stay inside, thus shutting down the economy?

3. Is there a plan? If there is, what is it? How and when will we know if the plan is working? If the plan is to manage COVID-19’s spread in order to protect the medical system, how will shutting down cities for a few weeks or months meaningfully help? What will happen when life returns towards normalcy? Won’t the virus return with a vengeance when life begins to return to normal? Then, won’t we be in the same position we are now, only poorer and thus less equipped to handle a medical crisis?

4. I know you are not allowed to use the word “flu” in this discussion, but: The H1N1 swine flu originated and broke out in the United States in spring 2009. By the end of that pandemic, about a year later, the CDC says the swine flu “caused 60.8 million illnesses, 273,304 hospitalizations and 12,469 deaths in the U.S.” Those numbers marked the end of that pandemic. We are still at the beginning of COVID-19, so the numbers are not apples to apples. But in the beginning of H1N1, did we react nearly as severely as we are reacting now to COVID-19? Why not? I suspect one reason is because we have seen Italy’s medical system become overwhelmed by COVID-19. If that is the main reason, is shutting down our economy the right way to try to avoid that situation? Why is our reaction to COVID-19, seven weeks since the first U.S. case, so disproportionately severe compared to our reaction to the swine flu seven weeks in? Or is it not disproportionate? It’s a fair question.”

This is an argument I developed a couple days ago.  Close all the businesses in the even zip codes, and leave all those in odd zip codes open.  If it is a bar or restaurant, only serve people who live first in the even zip codes, then the odd.  A three stage would be 1-3, 4-6, 7-0, if that makes sense in any given city.

Or do it alphabetically.  It doesn’t matter.  You keep some segment of the economy going, and are able to give an end date to the people you are asking to stay home, which is vital. If you know when an ordeal is going to end–running 26.2 miles–it is vastly easier than “run until we say stop.”

Yes, I get that there are unknowns.  There are ALWAYS fucking unknowns. What is NOT an unknown is that our ECONOMY IS GOING TO HIT THE CRAPPER HARD if we stay on this idiotic path.

And I would suggest that never in human history has there been so much panic over a disease which is over quickly for most people, and in many of whom it doesn’t even have symptoms.  In every culture around the world for all of history, the old have periodically died in larger numbers from illnesses of various sorts.  But even there, we can protect our elderly.  We just ask them to stay home.

This whole thing will be seen as madness soon.  But the Trump era has been filled with madness.  Not from him–he is one of the few sane men in public politics.  But from people like Chuck Schumer, who in the space of a week accused Trump of doing too much and then too little.  WHILE they were criticizing his response for being insufficient he and Nancy were trying to undo his travel ban.  This shit is UNBELIEVABLE. 

I ask again: how fucking stupid are most Americans?  I don’t think we know yet.

Could he fire everyone he suspects of working to undermine his administration and the well being of the American people?

Can he do radical bureaucratic reorganizations to unsettle and disrupt the Deep State?

Can we not offer very attractive enticements to bring substantially all medical manufacturing back to our shores, at least, and our country itself, ideally?  I would even be OK with Mexico, since the best long term solution to illegal immigration is better economic conditions south of the border.  Hell people may even go home voluntarily.  I wonder, actually, if some are going home to avoid the coronavirus here.

Here is a conspiracy theory for you: COVID-19 was created in a US lab, and released in China, Iran, Italy and the United States by members of the Deep State.  China, in blaming us, may have realized they didn’t create the virus.  They have likely been assuming they did, and been working overtime to cover it up.  But perhaps one of their researchers found a fingerprint pointing unmistakably to us, which is why one of their ministers publicly blamed us and Xi threatened to withhold needed medicines.

The end aim was a Hail Mary to stop Trump, in everything.  They wanted to destroy the US economy, but felt first they needed to contain our remaining nation-state enemies, which for the most part are Iran and China.  They weakened them, then brought the thing here.  They consciously undermined Trump’s travel ban by bringing back the cruise ship carriers against Trump’s wishes and intent.  Then the CDC accidentally-on-purpose fucked up the testing long enough for the virus to spread.

Here’s the thing about diseases: an agent can leave them on a counter in a bathroom, or a bar, or on a door handle, or in the back of a cab or Uber, and nobody will ever know.  It is completely untraceable.

But the net effect is not just going to be a wrecked US economy, but all the powers that will be gained by a government in emergency.  Governments in emergencies never behave well, and panicked people often submit to it.  I think there is a good chance someone around him will try and infect Trump with COVID-19, in what can only be described as an effort at assassination.  It would be a clean hit, if they can get away with it.

My view is that the panic is overwrought.  Italy has the second oldest population in the world (after Japan), and most of them live with extended families.  In the US, we are much younger, and our old live in rest homes, or at least in homes of their own, where they more or less self sequester naturally most of the time, just due to reduced mobility. 

We also have much more space, in most of the US.  Rural and suburban areas are not even remotely concentrated the way most of Europe is.

This thing will kill vastly less than the 30-80,000 people who will die from the flu this year.  Our flu numbers, actually, will most likely be down, too, since meetings are being banned, and everyone is scrubbing continuously with soap and hand sanitizer.

But last year at this time there were 250-500,000 people, give or take, who were or had been hospitalized during the course of the annual flu epidemic which strikes most of the country each and every year.

The only thing possibly worse about this epidemic is a shortage of ICU ventilators for double pneumonias.  But as I say, most of the people who would be filling those beds are half quarantined all the time, and fully quarantined now.  The overflow will not happen, in my view.

What WILL happen is we go in three weeks from a record stock market to a recession.  Thousands of businesses will close permanently with as little as two weeks lost revenue.

This panic has been sold to us by the media, in collaboration with people whose names we may never know, if Trump does not get reelected, and not get righteously ANGRY at all the people in our own government who want to see the American Experiment fail, in favor of gray, loveless, rotten and evil authoritarianism, into the murky mists of the foreseeable future.

This breaks my vow, I will call it, but I needed to say this, and Facebook was the wrong place.

Now, this sort of thing is not for everyone–spirit guides, the spiritual generally, past lives, intuition of a non-physical variety–but I personally take it seriously.

I really feel I am on the right track.

If you can find a teacher willing to call you a fucking moron, then that’s a good thing.  Firstly, it is certainly true, but secondly, they would not bother speaking to you if there was no hope.

But I wanted to say, once, and then no more, that if this blog is actually meaningful and important for anyone, speak up.  As far as I know for sure, I have zero readers.  I have no followers at all.  It has long felt like I had readers, but it was just a sense, and I have come to the time in my life where I start telling the truth about everything.  No more bullshit.  No more comforting illusions.  No more little lies.

So I’m actually serious about the May 1 thing.  If I am providing any measure of comfort to anyone, speak now, or I’m going dark for six months or so.

I drew the Devil Tarot by the way.  Perfect.  That is exactly where I want to go: all the darkness, everything hidden, everything which gains power only through fear, rigidity and ignorance.