Metric – Moderates United

It occurred to me we can establish a reasonably precise metric for what a perfect response to the COVID-19 situation would be: 100% utilization of all our ventilators in all our hospitals continuously for about the next two months. Neither more cases than can be assigned to life saving equipment, nor less.

What is clarifying about this metric is it makes clear that a certain number of cases are NEEDED to get through this. We can and should debate the extent of preventive measures, but if 100% of the population is quarantined with no symptoms, then we are merely delaying the inevitable.

It could, as one blatantly obvious example, happen that our governments, after a two week 100% shut down, choose to open things up 100%, at which point our hospitals go within a week from underused to overused.

Overall, I think it is safe to say that my skepticism of “experts”, which is both congenital and well earned across a lifetime of observation, continues to be validated by the actions of all the fucking Einstein’s in this country, who continue to insist that another Great Depression is the cost we all must pay, to save we don’t know how many lives, but likely something less than will die of the flu this year.

Basically what we need is a controlled flow of water–of new infection–and we are using coerced labor stoppages (quarantines, shelter in place orders)–as a sluice gate. Policy makers need to look specifically at respirator use around the country, and at identified new infections. We need a certain amount of both. If we don’t get enough, then quarantines need to be relaxed. Let people under 60 out, or businesses starting A-L to reopen. Some method to generate some circulation.

Stopping the water–new infections–will never be a valid long term solution. If there is intelligence in any of this, it is choosing measures proportionate to the diseases, the diseases of COVID-19, and economic ruin. The two need to be balanced.