Putin and Trump have pretty similar personalities. They are both men of action, who are able to make decisions quickly and stick with them. Neither are even remotely academic, as far as I can tell. Neither can give you a long off the cuff disquisition on anything.
But both are cunning. They have a natural understanding of strategy, long experience using it, and an acute awareness of human psychology, and particularly human weakness.
I think Putin just wants those two parcels of land in the Ukraine. He has no intention of invading the whole nation of Ukraine. But by saber rattling and scaring people, he is likely calculating that he can make invading two relatively small parts of the Ukraine look like a victory for the West. He will go in there, where his support is strong and they don’t want to be part of the Ukraine anyway (I will note, this may be the result of long term cross border subversion; I won’t claim to know much about the history), and then mass his troops again on the Ukrainian border. He will talk about how the whole of Ukraine belongs to him, how he has a right to it and West has no right to interfere. He will talk again about his nuclear missiles, and Russian history.
Diplomats around the world will be engaged. Biden will send Blinken, which Putin will vastly prefer to the laughable idea of meeting with a senile criminal who was not overly smart BEFORE he got Alzheimers. How awkward and BORING that would be, for a man of above average intelligence. It’s borderline insulting. A week or two will pass. Missives back and forth. Maybe a few minor artillery events on both sides.
Tension. Then, finally, Putin finally pulls all troops back, allows Biden and the West to declare victory in their diplomacy, and HE WILL STILL BE IN THOSE TWO REGIONS. We are not going to go to war to “rescue” parts of Ukraine that don’t seem to want to be Ukrainian anyway.
And he can stop there if he likes. It’s a solid win.
How ludicrous and risible must it be, looking at the US from ANY direction, with a senile imbecile for President and a corrupt, inarticulate, ignorant whore a heartbeat away as our leaders.
And Putin, like Trump, probably loves spinning people’s wheels, getting them going. He is probably laughing his ass off. As far as I can tell, Biden and his handlers may REALLY be worried. This wasn’t part of the script. And they are all amateurs. They know how to take bribes, tell party lies, and mouth the pieties of the day, but they don’t know jack shit about real world policy, not if the goal is effectiveness rather than rhetoric.
What a strange time. What a strange world, although I really don’t have any others to compare it to. I suppose when we say strange, what we really mean is how wide the gap is between what we would suppose should be happening, and what actually is. “Strange” usually means people are doing stupid or rotten things.
But, as I say, what Putin is doing makes perfect sense from his perspective. It is rational, at least if I am reading it right.