I have not seen a responsible treatment of this anywhere, although I have been busy, so I may have missed it.
As things stand, the plan is to borrow something like 40 cents of every dollar we spend forever. There is literally no point, under any scenario under active contemplation, in which the amount of money the Federal Government spends is equal to the amount which it takes in in taxes.
As I understand the matter, you can go out 40 years, and the math still won’t work. To point out that this is unsustainable and stupid does not require any particular intelligence. Presumably that is why the naked facts of the matter are not made clear by most Democrat apologists. Even the Republicans are doing little but try to slow down the pace at which things get worse. The boulder is still rolling downhill, though.
Obviously, a balanced budget amendment would force this process to stop instantly, but we will need to cut our spending nearly in half. To do this, we are talking about massive cuts not only to entitlements, but Defense. And that is just to STOP BORROWING. That says nothing about the annual payments on our current debt, which amount to some $250-$400 billion a year. This is money taken by our government in taxes, and given to foreign investors and domestic banks. Put another way, it is wasted money, just like paying interest on credit cards. If we posit the number at $350 billion and our population at 350 million, which is about right, then we get EVERY AMERICAN paying about $1,000 a year just to pay interest. Since almost half of all Americans don’t pay income taxes, this means that most of us productive sorts pay $2,000 or more.
[On one point here I am unclear: if Quantitative Easing consists in buying Treasury bonds, where does the interest go? As I understand it, the Fed refunds all profits, AFTER ITS EMPLOYEES GET PAID. How much do they get paid? Excellent question. There is no way of knowing. We don’t get their financials. They just control the value of our money. It’s not like that affects anything, right?]
Now, the baseline increase in our debt is somewhere between $7 and $10 trillion. How much to “cut” from this is the debate now. But this assumes economic stability. Obamacare is going to force massive new cost increases to most American businesses (it won’t affect the places Nancy Pelosi likes to eat, get her hair done, and where she gets here botox injections), which will be very economically damaging. All American businesspeople know this, and are planning for it now, in part by delaying expansions they could otherwise afford, to see what happens politically.
But if we can’t get this monstrosity reversed, then the amount paid in taxes will go down, since that is what happens when the economy declines (self evidently, given fixed tax rates, the opposite happens when the economy expands). This will mean the gap between income and expenses will widen, making even, say $9 trillion a low number. The real number may be $15 trillion.
Everyone who understands basic business and economics knows this. Moody’s (if you think about it, Moody and Standard and Poor are both interesting names, given what they do), the rating agency, knows this. This is why they are talking about a downgrade of our debt. There is a point you reach where it is likely that you will continue making interest payments, but at which over no timeline short of centuries that you will be able to pay off the principle. Add economic shocks to this, and you get uncertainty, which is bad.
What a downgrade will mean is simply that the national “stock” of the United States is worth less. This will mean that we pay higher interest rates, which in turn will mean, what? HIGHER ANNUAL EXPENSES.
So you have this loop where higher interest leads to higher expenses, which leads to more borrowing, which leads to more interest. None of this can be stopped using normal economic principles unless we stop spending more every year than we borrow. This is so self evident that one could accuse most journalists covering this poorly of failing professionally, either in perception or integrity.
As I say often, though, the pig with lipstick on it stinking up the room is the Federal Reserve and the fractional reserve banking system.
At some point it is my hope that some professional economist or politician will read and understand the basics of my plan to both end our financially abusive system, and propose a solution in the ballpark of what I have proposed. I assume I have missed something, but feel strongly the broad outline is correct. I never have the time to study these things to the extent I like–I need to be somewhere right now, actually–but I think my basic thought process, my use of facts and logic on a complex system, is sound.
Again, the link to that series is here: http://www.goodnessmovement.com/Page14.html