The following paragraphs (2,000 words) are intended to
contribute to the public discussions and private considerations of people of
conscience and goodwill, with regard to several topics touching the COVID-19
pandemic and the response to it by the worlds governments.
contribute to the public discussions and private considerations of people of
conscience and goodwill, with regard to several topics touching the COVID-19
pandemic and the response to it by the worlds governments.
The author of this piece has read much that was
indefensible and wrong about this pandemic, some that was informed and
intelligent, but never an attempt at a comprehensive treatment that was also as
concise as possible. It is hard to say a
lot in few words. But I’m going to try,
and end with an actionable specific proposal to end this pandemic nearly
immediately at a relatively low cost and reasonably safely.
indefensible and wrong about this pandemic, some that was informed and
intelligent, but never an attempt at a comprehensive treatment that was also as
concise as possible. It is hard to say a
lot in few words. But I’m going to try,
and end with an actionable specific proposal to end this pandemic nearly
immediately at a relatively low cost and reasonably safely.
All rational discussion about pandemics must start with
Farr’s Law, which was discovered—perhaps articulated and quantified may be
better terms—by Dr. William Farr, around 1840, with respect to a then recent
smallpox epidemic.
Farr’s Law, which was discovered—perhaps articulated and quantified may be
better terms—by Dr. William Farr, around 1840, with respect to a then recent
smallpox epidemic.
The essence of it is that epidemics and pandemics follow
a Bell Curve, or something close to it.
There is a lead up, a peak, and then a gradual decline.
a Bell Curve, or something close to it.
There is a lead up, a peak, and then a gradual decline.
When we were told we had to “flatten the curve” there
were two curves: Farr’s Curve, as I will call it here, which assumed beds and adequate
care for all patients which needed it; and the Excess Death Curve, which
included the people who would not have died if hospital space had been
available, but who would die because at projected rates of increase the
capacity would be exceeded.
were two curves: Farr’s Curve, as I will call it here, which assumed beds and adequate
care for all patients which needed it; and the Excess Death Curve, which
included the people who would not have died if hospital space had been
available, but who would die because at projected rates of increase the
capacity would be exceeded.
Stated simply ,the aim was to eradicate the Excess Death
Curve, leaving only Farr’s Curve. As we
all know by now, the predicted wave never came, and most American hospitals are
under severe financial stress.
Curve, leaving only Farr’s Curve. As we
all know by now, the predicted wave never came, and most American hospitals are
under severe financial stress.
Such curves can be short and steep, or they can be long
and gradual, but—and this is a critical point—THE SAME NUMBER OF PEOPLE DIE IN
ALL SCENARIOS.
and gradual, but—and this is a critical point—THE SAME NUMBER OF PEOPLE DIE IN
ALL SCENARIOS.
Critical to note: IF WE STAY HOME A YEAR, THE SAME
NUMBER OF PEOPLE ARE PROJECTED TO DIE, JUST OVER A MUCH LONGER TIME PERIOD.
NUMBER OF PEOPLE ARE PROJECTED TO DIE, JUST OVER A MUCH LONGER TIME PERIOD.
Now, we all saw the exponent people at the beginning of
this. 1 person infects 2 people, who
infect 4 people, etc. What Farr’s Law
describes is 1 to 2, 2 to 4, 4 to 8, then 8 to 8, 8 to 4, 4 to 2, 2 to 1, then
cessation.
this. 1 person infects 2 people, who
infect 4 people, etc. What Farr’s Law
describes is 1 to 2, 2 to 4, 4 to 8, then 8 to 8, 8 to 4, 4 to 2, 2 to 1, then
cessation.
What is almost certainly happening is that as people get
the disease and develop immunity to it, the spread slows. There are less people who can still play host
to it, and then eventually individuals who have it never infect anyone else.
the disease and develop immunity to it, the spread slows. There are less people who can still play host
to it, and then eventually individuals who have it never infect anyone else.
But it is like the disease needs a pound of flesh. It needs to be appeased. No good ways of avoiding this have yet been
found, with respect to diseases we have neither cured nor developed fully
reliable vaccines for.
found, with respect to diseases we have neither cured nor developed fully
reliable vaccines for.
As one obvious example, the flu kills up to perhaps
600,000 people around the world every year, even though we understand the flu,
have vaccines, and know it is coming each and every year.
600,000 people around the world every year, even though we understand the flu,
have vaccines, and know it is coming each and every year.
That condition where the disease is finding it harder
and harder to spread and eventually impossible is called “Herd Immunity”. With respect to every pandemic ever, the
disease ended, one way or another, when it had no more hosts. In some cases it may have killed
everyone. But in most cases it allowed
some to live, who were then immune. In most cases, there were also likely a
lucky few—perhaps 10-30% of the total—who were untouched when the last carrier
healed or died without being in contact with them.
and harder to spread and eventually impossible is called “Herd Immunity”. With respect to every pandemic ever, the
disease ended, one way or another, when it had no more hosts. In some cases it may have killed
everyone. But in most cases it allowed
some to live, who were then immune. In most cases, there were also likely a
lucky few—perhaps 10-30% of the total—who were untouched when the last carrier
healed or died without being in contact with them.
What vaccination does is create what might be termed “Induced
Herd Immunity”. Rather than wait to get
the disease, people are injected with a safer—we hope—version of it, so that
they can’t and won’t get the disease if and when it comes knocking on their
door.
Herd Immunity”. Rather than wait to get
the disease, people are injected with a safer—we hope—version of it, so that
they can’t and won’t get the disease if and when it comes knocking on their
door.
And what treatments do—like antibiotics—is both shrink
the curve—less time and less death—and change deaths into mere infections. Both, I think we can safely assume, follow
the same curve.
the curve—less time and less death—and change deaths into mere infections. Both, I think we can safely assume, follow
the same curve.
And this is an important point: even with relatively
benign diseases, like the cold, the epidemic has to run its course. A certain number of people MUST get the
disease. There is no other way.
benign diseases, like the cold, the epidemic has to run its course. A certain number of people MUST get the
disease. There is no other way.
There are and can be really only two “end games” with
respect to this disease. With all the
conflicts over masks, and social distancing, and shutdowns and restrictions,
there has been astonishingly little talk about the END of the COVID crisis.
respect to this disease. With all the
conflicts over masks, and social distancing, and shutdowns and restrictions,
there has been astonishingly little talk about the END of the COVID crisis.
To be sure, some seemingly smug and callous segment of
our population is to all appearances enjoying what is going on, and would like
it to last a long time, perhaps even indefinitely. Many of them seem to work for the media.
our population is to all appearances enjoying what is going on, and would like
it to last a long time, perhaps even indefinitely. Many of them seem to work for the media.
But all honest humanitarians, people conscious of the
damage the shutdown is causing to human lives, want it to end as soon as
possible.
damage the shutdown is causing to human lives, want it to end as soon as
possible.
Herd Immunity is the ONLY end to it. The ONLY end.
But two versions of Herd Immunity exist: regular Herd Immunity, in which
a percentage of us get it and develop immunity or die, or what I calling the
Induced Immunity of vaccination.
But two versions of Herd Immunity exist: regular Herd Immunity, in which
a percentage of us get it and develop immunity or die, or what I calling the
Induced Immunity of vaccination.
With respect to vaccination, several facts are relevant.
Most importantly, 1) no vaccine has ever been developed
for any of the known coronaviruses, despite much effort; and 2) clinical trials
for new drugs take many years. Here is one
link on new medicines: https://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=9877
for any of the known coronaviruses, despite much effort; and 2) clinical trials
for new drugs take many years. Here is one
link on new medicines: https://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=9877
Logically, waiting an indeterminate amount of time for a
vaccine which may not be forthcoming, and which—if we saw it in less than five
years or so—would not be proven safe by any means, much less something that any
sane government could demand be injected into unwilling people, would not be a
good solution, EVEN IF we were not in a terrible condition, in which
unemployment is 20% or higher, millions of homes in default, millions of
renters at risk of eviction, rates of
depression and suicide and drug overdose through the roof, and suffering a host
of other ills.
vaccine which may not be forthcoming, and which—if we saw it in less than five
years or so—would not be proven safe by any means, much less something that any
sane government could demand be injected into unwilling people, would not be a
good solution, EVEN IF we were not in a terrible condition, in which
unemployment is 20% or higher, millions of homes in default, millions of
renters at risk of eviction, rates of
depression and suicide and drug overdose through the roof, and suffering a host
of other ills.
But that IS our situation.
Turning to regular Herd Immunity, it turns out there are
some interesting statistics, based on my calculations performed on the CDC
numbers, which you can look up. 93% of the people who have died were over the
age of 55. This means that IF YOU GET
COVID-19, your risk is 7% of the death rate, which seems to be about .4%. This is about 28 people in 100,000, or about
1 in 3,571.
some interesting statistics, based on my calculations performed on the CDC
numbers, which you can look up. 93% of the people who have died were over the
age of 55. This means that IF YOU GET
COVID-19, your risk is 7% of the death rate, which seems to be about .4%. This is about 28 people in 100,000, or about
1 in 3,571.
With regards to the population as a whole, your lifetime
risk of dying by suicide is 1 in 96, and drug overdose 1 in 97. Your lifetime risk of dying in a car accident
is 1 in 114. Your annualized risk of
dying in a car accident is 1 in 8,303 (https://www.iii.org/fact-statistic/facts-statistics-mortality-risk )
risk of dying by suicide is 1 in 96, and drug overdose 1 in 97. Your lifetime risk of dying in a car accident
is 1 in 114. Your annualized risk of
dying in a car accident is 1 in 8,303 (https://www.iii.org/fact-statistic/facts-statistics-mortality-risk )
And the numbers are better the younger you are. 97% of deaths were over 45, and 99% over
35. Only 160 people under 25 had died as
of June 25, 2020. At 3% the risk drops
to 12 in 100,000 (1 in 8,333), and at 1% to 4 in 100,000 (1 in 25,000). Even though it is hard to get reliable
statistics, the death and severe complication rates from ordinary vaccinations
which have been done for a long time are likely higher than that.
35. Only 160 people under 25 had died as
of June 25, 2020. At 3% the risk drops
to 12 in 100,000 (1 in 8,333), and at 1% to 4 in 100,000 (1 in 25,000). Even though it is hard to get reliable
statistics, the death and severe complication rates from ordinary vaccinations
which have been done for a long time are likely higher than that.
Here
is a proposal: the logical course of action is for all people under age 55 to
get this disease as soon as possible.
One obvious method would be to end mask and social distancing restrictions
for all people under 55 and encourage socializing.
is a proposal: the logical course of action is for all people under age 55 to
get this disease as soon as possible.
One obvious method would be to end mask and social distancing restrictions
for all people under 55 and encourage socializing.
An
even more direct approach would be to inject or otherwise expose people to the
disease directly, in a controlled way.
even more direct approach would be to inject or otherwise expose people to the
disease directly, in a controlled way.
If you think about it, what a vaccine is, is the disease
itself, rendered—ideally—inert, so that an immune response happens, without
significant risk of severe illness. This
is not always what happens. Many of my
friends who were required in the military to get flu shots got the flu every
year after their shots. The author has
never had a flu shot, and has had the flu once in his life, many years ago in a
period of intense stress that weakened his immune system.
itself, rendered—ideally—inert, so that an immune response happens, without
significant risk of severe illness. This
is not always what happens. Many of my
friends who were required in the military to get flu shots got the flu every
year after their shots. The author has
never had a flu shot, and has had the flu once in his life, many years ago in a
period of intense stress that weakened his immune system.
Early “vaccines” against smallpox consisted in
scratching someone with something similar, called Cowpox. Here is a link on this interesting topic: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smallpox_vaccine
scratching someone with something similar, called Cowpox. Here is a link on this interesting topic: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smallpox_vaccine
That was done 200 years ago.
The practice was widespread, and done in China, Turkey,
and elsewhere. Here is an interesting
excerpt:
and elsewhere. Here is an interesting
excerpt:
“In China,
powdered smallpox scabs were blown up the noses of the healthy. The patients
would then develop a mild case of the disease and from then on were immune to
it. The technique did have a 0.5–2.0% mortality rate, but that was considerably
less than the 20–30% mortality rate of the disease itself.”
powdered smallpox scabs were blown up the noses of the healthy. The patients
would then develop a mild case of the disease and from then on were immune to
it. The technique did have a 0.5–2.0% mortality rate, but that was considerably
less than the 20–30% mortality rate of the disease itself.”
This practice—of exposure
to more or less pure forms of either the same illness in less toxic form, or of
exposure to a related illness—is called variolation or insufflations. It may be quite old indeed.
to more or less pure forms of either the same illness in less toxic form, or of
exposure to a related illness—is called variolation or insufflations. It may be quite old indeed.
One more factor to
consider is that it appears fully half the people who get this are never
contagious, and never develop symptoms.
The only people who are contagious are those who are presymptomatic, and
who can infect people through talking, and of course those who are actively
coughing, which we all knew from the outset.
The period of maximum contagiousness appears to last about ten days from
the appearance of symptoms.
consider is that it appears fully half the people who get this are never
contagious, and never develop symptoms.
The only people who are contagious are those who are presymptomatic, and
who can infect people through talking, and of course those who are actively
coughing, which we all knew from the outset.
The period of maximum contagiousness appears to last about ten days from
the appearance of symptoms.
Here is a simple proposal: inject all healthy
volunteers under the age of 55 with this disease. This will have the same effect as a vaccine,
and will almost certainly be safer, and certainly available much sooner.
volunteers under the age of 55 with this disease. This will have the same effect as a vaccine,
and will almost certainly be safer, and certainly available much sooner.
There are several
practical benefits to this. One, the
person can plan and take time off from work.
Two, their levels of Vitamin D tested, and where needed Vitamin D
supplements can be taken. It is a
seeming fact that the severity of the illness is related to Vitamin D
levels. High levels almost always mean
less severity. Three, we know who has
had the illness—or at least been exposed to it—with certainly. More science can be done, and less guessing.
practical benefits to this. One, the
person can plan and take time off from work.
Two, their levels of Vitamin D tested, and where needed Vitamin D
supplements can be taken. It is a
seeming fact that the severity of the illness is related to Vitamin D
levels. High levels almost always mean
less severity. Three, we know who has
had the illness—or at least been exposed to it—with certainly. More science can be done, and less guessing.
All of the devastating
effects of the lockdown will be known eventually. The media will not be able to hide them
all. Divorces, children traumatized in
many ways, stress related illnesses, failed businesses, lost homes, and around
the world steep drops into severe poverty and most likely starvation. Misery on a global scale is the future, and
the prospect gets worse every week we fail to list restrictions.
effects of the lockdown will be known eventually. The media will not be able to hide them
all. Divorces, children traumatized in
many ways, stress related illnesses, failed businesses, lost homes, and around
the world steep drops into severe poverty and most likely starvation. Misery on a global scale is the future, and
the prospect gets worse every week we fail to list restrictions.
One study done some years
ago found that a 1% increase in unemployment seems to lead to 40,000 more
deaths in the US than would have been expected.
It’s discussed here in a BBC radio interview: https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p03kpvk2
ago found that a 1% increase in unemployment seems to lead to 40,000 more
deaths in the US than would have been expected.
It’s discussed here in a BBC radio interview: https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p03kpvk2
And although it’s unclear
what it will look like in six months, unemployment just went up 15% or
more. That works out to 600,000 excess
deaths, most of whom would more or less die from some feature of generalized
stress. And of course the lockdown
itself is a stress over and above unemployment.
The exact number may not hold, but that a lot of people are feeling a
lot of stress and making a lot of bad decisions is really indisputable. Around 85,000 people were dying annually in
this country from suicides and drug overdoses BEFORE this whole thing hit. It’s not unreasonable to suppose that number
will double, which will approach the numbers of the COVID epidemic.
what it will look like in six months, unemployment just went up 15% or
more. That works out to 600,000 excess
deaths, most of whom would more or less die from some feature of generalized
stress. And of course the lockdown
itself is a stress over and above unemployment.
The exact number may not hold, but that a lot of people are feeling a
lot of stress and making a lot of bad decisions is really indisputable. Around 85,000 people were dying annually in
this country from suicides and drug overdoses BEFORE this whole thing hit. It’s not unreasonable to suppose that number
will double, which will approach the numbers of the COVID epidemic.
[Note: I am not dealing
here with the likelihood that the numbers both of deaths and cases are
inaccurate and most likely exaggerated, both intentionally and unintentionally—or
in the case of hospitals trying to stay afloat when most of their core business
has been shut down by the government—reluctantly].
here with the likelihood that the numbers both of deaths and cases are
inaccurate and most likely exaggerated, both intentionally and unintentionally—or
in the case of hospitals trying to stay afloat when most of their core business
has been shut down by the government—reluctantly].
The cost of the lockdowns
will unquestionably be terrible, and we can assume the focus of the media will
be convincing us that it was all worth it, that our governors had no choice.
will unquestionably be terrible, and we can assume the focus of the media will
be convincing us that it was all worth it, that our governors had no choice.
But it’s not, and they
did and do. Nobody is thinking this
through.
did and do. Nobody is thinking this
through.
Mask wearing and social
distancing make sense for those over 55, most of whom should continue to keep a
low profile. They should stay home, stay
away from people in public, and shop at the appointed hours. But all the rest of us who value our lives,
our freedom, and the future of our children need to walk straight towards this
thing, which for most of us will be a harmless annoyance.
distancing make sense for those over 55, most of whom should continue to keep a
low profile. They should stay home, stay
away from people in public, and shop at the appointed hours. But all the rest of us who value our lives,
our freedom, and the future of our children need to walk straight towards this
thing, which for most of us will be a harmless annoyance.
Once most of us have had
this thing, then the risk to the 55 and up demographic will drop precipitously
and immediately. In my proposal, we take
the risks, and they reap the benefits of getting back to something closer to a
normal life, even though for the vulnerable all diseases will continue to be
something they need to guard against carefully.
this thing, then the risk to the 55 and up demographic will drop precipitously
and immediately. In my proposal, we take
the risks, and they reap the benefits of getting back to something closer to a
normal life, even though for the vulnerable all diseases will continue to be
something they need to guard against carefully.
And as far as schools, no
reason ever existed to close primary schools.
Sweden showed this conclusively.
And the teachers can “vaccinate” themselves as I propose and then feel
no fear in the classroom. The younger
ones, under 55, should feel no fear anyway, since children are poor carriers,
and illness in them would run little risk.
reason ever existed to close primary schools.
Sweden showed this conclusively.
And the teachers can “vaccinate” themselves as I propose and then feel
no fear in the classroom. The younger
ones, under 55, should feel no fear anyway, since children are poor carriers,
and illness in them would run little risk.
As far as high schools
and universities, the virus is almost certainly safer than the vaccine, and the
disease is here now. We need to follow
the logic.
and universities, the virus is almost certainly safer than the vaccine, and the
disease is here now. We need to follow
the logic.
One final consideration:
the worst cases seem to happen when the virus attaches to the lungs in a
particular way. If it is injected, or
inhaled perhaps in one way and not another, that particular outcome can most
likely be avoided, which means that the overall mortality from it can be
dropped perhaps another 50-70%. This
holds particularly if we make intravenous supplements a part of the process. After all, if we control the process of
disease initiation, we can control the initial conditions.
the worst cases seem to happen when the virus attaches to the lungs in a
particular way. If it is injected, or
inhaled perhaps in one way and not another, that particular outcome can most
likely be avoided, which means that the overall mortality from it can be
dropped perhaps another 50-70%. This
holds particularly if we make intravenous supplements a part of the process. After all, if we control the process of
disease initiation, we can control the initial conditions.
We all have time on our
hands, or most of us. We continue to
work, but it’s not how it was for most of us.
hands, or most of us. We continue to
work, but it’s not how it was for most of us.
If you have read this
far, and feel these ideas worth considering, please email this to 3 people, and/or
post it on your Facebook or other social media.
No one is saying what I am saying, even though the logic seems to me between
solidly tenable and irrefutable.
far, and feel these ideas worth considering, please email this to 3 people, and/or
post it on your Facebook or other social media.
No one is saying what I am saying, even though the logic seems to me between
solidly tenable and irrefutable.
The author’s only
interest is in trying to provide better ideas than those in widest circulation
and in so doing perhaps to improve the world.
If you would like more reading of this sort, please visit www.goodnessmovement.com . It is not monetized in any way, and
intended solely as an intellectual resource for those interested.
interest is in trying to provide better ideas than those in widest circulation
and in so doing perhaps to improve the world.
If you would like more reading of this sort, please visit www.goodnessmovement.com . It is not monetized in any way, and
intended solely as an intellectual resource for those interested.