I think that, while it is true we have people stupid enough to compare North Korea to Libya, there are also MAJOR differences.
There is really no internal opposition to the Kim regime, and has not been for many decades. There is no civil war waiting in the wings.
And if Kim is at the point where he is willing to liberalize economically, to allow private investment, to create wealth, to bring in plentiful foodstuffs, then there will be no reason for rebellion for some time.
His hold on power might be a bucking bronco for a minute, but while I am not one normally to vote for tyranny, tyranny with food and opportunity would be much better than what the North Koreans have now.
Trump has demonstrated many times now a pattern of making extreme demands, and then relenting. He is by design unpredictable, because he learned long, long ago that this improves his negotiating position, especially if he is starting from a position of strength.
I don’t know if complete denuclearization is a reasonable demand, but RELATIVE decreases would certainly be a reasonable demand, in exchange for opening up the North Korean market.
A plan can be developed for a complete denuclearization, but over a window of, say, 5 to 10 years. This gives Kim a chance to see how things go–none of us know what will happen, but at least as far as the people of North Korea it ought to be good–and then make a decision.
For our part, there is no need to invade a nation which is liberalizing. It would be counterproductive. It has seemed obvious for some years that the North Koreans are kind of in a deep freeze, and will need to be thawed out, politically and socially speaking. And this would have been true if we could have conquered North Korean with magical dragons with no loss to ourselves. We still would have had a nation of people used to absolute tyranny.
I think cautious optimism is warranted. Trump is unpredictable, but he is not stupid. He has a plan, and that plan can certainly embrace limited steps on both sides in the near term, followed by a reassessment in a year or two.
Kim can give us three nukes now, and we can build 20 McDonald’s in Pyongyang, to be staffed by local people. Trump can build a tower, or have some other developer do so, and Kim can open an office to evaluate the hundreds of investment plans which will likely come flooding in if and when various corporations become convinced he is serious about opening up.
North Korea could become like Cuba. I am no fan of Cuba, obviously, but Cuba is better than North Korea currently, and anything which deescalates nuclear tensions has to be good.
And who knows? Perhaps Kim will prove smarter than the Castros. They could have done so much better than they did.