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Nike–second thoughts

I’m thinking about this some more.  Either the polls showing a drop in positive views of Nike were wrong, or something is not adding up.

I reread both articles I posted.  The first one, showing a stock surge, is certainly true.  But this could EASILY be accomplished by one or more billionaires chipping in to show their political support for Nike.  Jeff Bezos could buy a hundred million in stock and not bat an eye.  So could Bill Gates, Warren Buffet, George Soros and many others.  It is scary to contemplate how many scary rich hard core Leftists there are out there.

And when you read more carefully, Nike users in general trend more Left than the population as a whole–they are more Chipotle than Cracker Barrel–but that is not the same as saying that all their customers are solid Democrats.  This is plainly not true.  Let us say an average company has 50% support from Republicans, and 50% from Democrats.  Nike is 40/60.  But this still means 40% of their business needs to come from people who were likely pissed off by the ad.

And the 30% sales increase was only over Labor Day weekend, and has to be compared to a normal 17% sales increase.  So it is a relative doubling, but that could easily be explained as a short term pattern of Leftists buying Nike because they are pissed at Trump.

The real metric will be where their sales are in a year, or even the 4th Quarter of this year.  If I am right, the energy they built among part of their customer base will be more than offset by losses everywhere else.  If their sales do not justify the stock valuations, then either the stock will fall, or we will know somebody is manipulating it.