First off, I want to apologize because I feel I have not been very incisive lately. I am not sure I ever am, but I FEEL incisive sometimes, and I haven’t been feeling in the zone. I am working extremely hard, and my brain and body are both quite tired most of the time.
Wait, I don’t believe in excuse making, so let me repudiate, in the manner of a politician, the foregoing, without actually deleting it, so I can keep my options open (name the movie: “when I’m not kissing babies, I’m stealing their lollipops”).
Here is what I was thinking today, wandering around on my 10′ ladder: Ron Paul combines in one person a rejection of BOTH of the reasons for government expansion. If you look at the last–let me do the math–83 years (if memory serves, Hoover was inaugurated in 1929), you will see that when Republicans are in power, spending always goes up. Goldwater excoriated the 1950’s Republicans in 1960.
The argument is simple: we have been neglecting Defense. For their part, Democrats tend to say “we have been neglecting social justice.” Now, some want their cake and to eat it too, like Kennedy and LBJ, but most of the time recently, since Carter roughly, it has been “spend less on Defense, and more on Kodak moments”.
Thus, since Hoover, every Administration, Democrat or Republican has, for one reason or another, increased the size of our government. Only exception? Anybody? The Democrats hopped on it quicker than it takes Slick Willie to get the hots for cheerleaders: Clinton.
Clinton decreased our social spending AND our military. He did both, and in the context of moderate tax increases, this put us in the black (on an annual basis) for the first time in a very, very long time, likely since Coolidge. It should be pointed out that the Congress, as well as the mood of the country, was decidedly conservative, but still he did piss off a lot of the left wing of his base.
Now, Democrats hate the idea of decreasing social programs, so the mainstream ones hate Paul. That, and the fact that he is a Republican–or running as one–makes him anathema.
For their part, conservatives hate him because he opposes this basic idea that we need to spend more and more and more on Defense. Each of our roughly seven Naval Carrier Groups has a bigger airforce than all but the largest nations. We have thousands of strategic nuclear weapons–in radar evading bombers, missile silos, and nuclear submarines, a triad those alive in the Reagan years will readily remember.
In 2010 we spent nearlyh $700 billion on Defense. In second place was the Commissar’s Oligarchy of China, at $114 billion. It is a valid question: is this really defense?
We have spy satellites up the yin-yang, but would it not make more sense to spend some small, small percentage of this developing the best human intelligence networks on the planet? The war we are fighting is in large measure one of interdiction, of preventing in particular WMD’s from getting used here. Given the dynamics of the situation, it certainly helps denying safe haven to terrorists by occupying Afghanistan and Iraq, but think about it: absent good information, can we really say for certain safe havens cannot be created anyway?
And in any event, as I have argued, we lose some ten times the number of people in car accidents annually that we lost on 9/11. We have lost MORE military personnel in war than died on that day.
And here is the $10 trillion question: can we be CERTAIN that all the death and destruction in Iraq and Afghanistan has worked to prevent terrorist attacks that would otherwise have taken place? Waterboarding people with information is to me a no brainer. Invading their nations, though? I was a hawk on both wars. But I see them going on and on and on. I see men growing up without knowing their children. One Navy Seal I talked with said he spent maybe a week with his son in his first year and a half. Same with another Navy Commander I know. Many of these people come back with mental problems that permanently change, for better or worse, their lives.
Is this national DEFENSE? Ron Paul claims to have received more in donations from military people than all the other candidates COMBINED. If this is true, it is because, having fought, killed, and suffered for freedom, they have conclude that no, it is not DEFENSE. It is certainly an offense intended as defense, but it is hard to know what might have been. I cringe saying this, since it the sort of thing the peaceniks love to latch on, but every bully claims it is in self defense.
We are not bullies, but can we hawks not at least CONSIDER the idea that maybe protecting the world from itself is not our job? There are no Nazis now, there is no Communist bloc now, and to the extent China represents a threat, it is now economic, in the form of being able to crash our economy.
Today I was reading that Paul will be ignored if he wins in Iowa, since it will only be because lefties came and voted, only to plan to vote for Obama again.
Some people don’t get out often enough. I’m not one of them. I talk with these people all the time. Just the other day a bartender who is a registered Democrat told me he would vote for Paul, but not Romney. He said if Romney gets the nod, he’s voting for Obama again.
What people need to remember, and this is CRITICAL in assessing Paul’s appeal nationally, is that he appeals both to the anti-war and the anti-government crowds, and that often both traits are found in people REGISTERED AS DEMOCRATS.
Why do the hippies have Ron Paul stickers? Because they expected Obama to let them down, and he has not let them down in letting them down. He stayed in Iraq. He stayed in Afghanistan.
More importantly, though, he continued the Patriot Act. People under his direct control started strip searching grandmothers and children. They are talking about an internet kill switch.
A principle fear of MANY Democrats was that Bush was corrupt, and under the control of corporate interests, and intended to institute a totalitarian regime. I saw this over and over and over.
Those same people will vote for Ron Paul in a heartbeat. The polls showing him trailing Romney by a lot are among REPUBLICANS. Paul can attract a HUGE cross-section of the very young people Obama depended on to get him elected, a cross section that will sit home and play video games if Romney or even Gingrich get the nod. They will vote for Obama, but not with enthusiasm.
This is an interesting election. In rejecting all the things that enable government to grow, he has something to alienate every priviledged bureaucrat and lobbyist, but something to actually make a difference for ordinary Americans.
Ask yourself this question: among the candidates, who is most likely to make radical changes to our absolutely unsustainable status quo? Someone who has been saying it needed to be done for 30 years, or people who just got small government religion last year?
Few thoughts, at least for me. This is disorganized, but I’m going to go drink some beer, and buy a Christmas present for my oldest.